Abstract
The Demographical Analysis of COVID-19 Spread in Pakistan: A Step towards Contact Tracing
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Rationale: Our goal was to analyze and understand the pattern of emergence and spread of Covid-19 in the southwestern province of Pakistan. This province of Baluchistan was later recognized as the receptacle of first confirmed case of COVID-19 in the country.
Methodology: A retrospective study was conducted where data was collected since the first confirmed cases of COVID-19 in Pakistan till 19th April 2020. A total sample of 432 cases was acquired and analyzed using SPSS version 20.
Results: It was discovered that despite the common understanding of high number of cases in Baluchistan was due to the pilgrims returning from Iran, however, the majority (60.6%) of confirmed COVID-19 cases emerged due to local spread. The cases began to pile up (33.8%) in an exponential manner during the last week of our data collection providing a grotesque picture of future prospects of outbreak control in the region. Although the majority of cases were found in middle aged patients however, a collective mortality rate of 1.15% was calculated among which all cases were of age group above 40.
Conclusions: The study provides a good picture of the spread of COVID-19 in the biggest province of Pakistan. The findings of this study helped in contact tracing of the infection in the region and helped in developing strategies to control the spread of the viral agent in the region.
Keywords: COVID-19, Coronavirus, Demography, Mortality, Baluchistan, Pakistan
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